Duration of Peace after a Civil War
Previous research has shown the outcome of a civil war has a strong influence on the duration of peace (Mason, Gurses, Brandt, and Quinn 2011). The outcome of a civil war will determine whether the conditions of multiple sovereignty, or “capacity to resume conflict”, persist in the post-war period (Mason 2011, 172).
Some studies have found that a rebel victory will produce a more durable peace than a government victory, but even victorious rebels are at risk of facing renewed conflict in the first year post victory (Mason et al. 2011). Both rebel and government victories produce a more durable peace than negotiated settlements. However, several studies indicate that negotiated settlements that incorporate power sharing and are enforced by a peacekeeping force produce a more durable peace than a government victory (Quinn, Mason, and Gurses 2007).
Turning to civil wars where drugs are present as a lootable resource. I can theorize on how the presence of drugs combines with each possible civil war outcome to affect the duration of peace.
H1 Countries that produce and/or transit drugs are less likely to experience a durable peace after civil war.