Eagle Feather

Author: Craig Carpenter

Faculty Mentor: J. Michael Greig, Department of Political Science, College of Arts and Sciences, University of North Texas

Department and College Affiliation: Department of Political Science, St Mary’s College of Maryland

Bio: Craig Carpenter’s hometown is Bowie, Maryland. He attends college at St. Mary’s College of Maryland, where he is currently a senior majoring in Political Science and Sociology. His academic interests include international relations and peace and conflict studies. After completing his undergraduate degree he plans to pursue a PhD in Political Science.

Abstract: While rivalries account for a relatively small number of dyadic relationships between states, they produce a disproportionately large number of conflicts (Geller 1993). This means that the study of rivalries represents a chance to understand the mechanisms that lead to conflict and thereby reduce the probability of conflicts in the future. In this study, elements of prospect theory are utilized to build a theoretical framework of how states perceive gains and losses. I theorize that states perceive gains and losses relative to their current accumulation of gains or losses. As a result, we would expect to see an increasing value placed on losses and a diminishing value placed on gains as the duration of a rivalry increases. This difference in perception would eventually lead to the pain perceived from losses outstripping the perceived benefits of gains, resulting in rivalry termination. I test the theory that rivalries with severe conflicts in the initial phases of the rivalry will result in shorter rivalry duration. However, the findings of this study do not support the initial theory as higher levels of severity in the initial period of the conflict are related to slightly increased rivalry duration.