From: "Saved by Windows Internet Explorer 7" Subject: In a brutal job market, a college degree is no longer protection Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2009 10:05:49 -0500 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="text/html"; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0000_01C9A87A.47572620" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.0.6001.18049 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0000_01C9A87A.47572620 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www.statesman.com/business/content/business/stories/employment/03/15/0315jobs.html
AUSTIN JOB PICTURE
AMERICAN-STATESMAN=20
STAFF
Sunday, March 15, 2009
In a more robust economy, Anne Danish would be a dream hire.
The Austin resident has more than 25 years of managerial experience,=20 specialized knowledge in the often complex world of insurance and a = bachelor's=20 degree.
But since she lost her job in November, Danish has applied for more = than 85=20 jobs, competing in some cases against hundreds of applicants for a = single job.=20
And it seems to be getting only tougher, despite her experience and=20 educational background.
"It's as though a dry spell hit in January and February," Danish = said. "And=20 this month, the jobs are not there."
Danish may be confronting a new reality in the brutal job market: A = college=20 degree, unless it is a master's or doctorate, is no longer protection = against=20 unemployment.
"People with advanced degrees will have an easier time navigating = this=20 recession," said Brian Kelsey, director of community and economic = development=20 for the Capital Area Council of Governments. "In previous years, if you = had a=20 bachelor's degree, the odds of finding another job were pretty good. But = this=20 time around is a different experience."
Kelsey analyzed local job data, including Bureau of Labor Statistics = data and=20 forecasts on more than 700 occupations from Economic Modeling = Specialists Inc.=20
His conclusions: Jobs available for people with bachelor's degrees or = less=20 education are likely to shrink this year as the Central Texas employment = picture=20 deteriorates. Meanwhile, jobs that require advanced degrees are likely = to grow,=20 albeit slightly.
In a tough job picture, of course, no one is guaranteed safety. Last = month,=20 chipmaker Spansion Inc. laid off experienced engineers and executives in = Austin,=20 as well as front-line manufacturing workers.
The chaos in the financial industry has put plenty of M.B.A.s out of = work.=20
But based on Kelsey's analysis, the number of Central Texas jobs that = require=20 a bachelor's degree is expected to fall 1.1 percent this year, to = 176,845. The=20 picture wasn't much better for jobs that require a degree plus = experience, or=20 long-term on-the-job training. In both cases, available jobs are = expected to=20 fall 1 percent. Jobs that require an associate degree are expected to = fall half=20 a percentage point to 35,716.
Meanwhile, jobs that require a doctoral degree will increase 1.6 = percent to=20 19,360, while jobs that require a master's degree will increase 1.2 = percent to=20 15,810 this year.
"For workers with less than an advanced degree, it's going to be more = of a=20 struggle," Kelsey said. "In contrast to previous years, when workers = without=20 postsecondary education could rely on construction or sales, for = example, for=20 relatively high-paying jobs, there is really no obvious place to turn = right now=20 for those same opportunities."
Austin's job market is in better shape than in many other cities, but = it is=20 getting worse.
The local unemployment rate in January was 6.4 percent, a five-year = high. An=20 onslaught of layoffs at the start of the year meant that 55,700 area = residents=20 are out of work, up 61 percent from January 2008.
February and March brought more local cuts, including several hundred = last=20 week at Dell Inc. Kelsey said he has also found that it will be tougher = for=20 workers without post-high-school education to make a so-called living = wage,=20 which currently stands at $16.27 an hour in the Austin area.
The number of jobs that pay such a wage for workers without college = degrees=20 or training certificates is projected to decline 1 percent to 140,411 = this year,=20 Kelsey said.
Historically, there has been an inverse relationship between the = level of=20 educational attainment and the unemployment rate for people with those=20 qualifications, said Bernard Weinstein, director of the Center for = Economic=20 Development and Research and a professor of applied economics at the = University=20 of North Texas in Denton."The higher the educational attainment, the = less likely=20 that person is to be unemployed," Weinstein said.
However, as the dramatic economic downturn continues, that is less = likely to=20 be true, he added.
"This recession is so pervasive and so broad and so deep that it is = affecting=20 just about every industry and every occupation, regardless of your = educational=20 attainment today," he said. "None of us are insulated from the winds of = this=20 downturn. In the great recession of 2008 to 2010, everyone is going to = be=20 affected."
Danish, who was vice president of operations at her last job, isn't = sure that=20 applicants with a master's or doctoral degree have a better shot in the = job=20 market currently.
Danish contends it has to do with money. Last week, she came across a = job ad=20 where the employer told applicants to be reasonable with their salary = requests.=20
"There's a large pool of people out there with 30 years, 10 years or = five=20 years of experience," she said. "It really all boils down to who can go = the=20 cheapest and assume the most responsibilities."
cgrisales@statesman.com, 912-5933
Central Texas job projections
Opportunities for those with less than master's degrees are likely to = shrink=20 this year.
Associate degree -0.5%
Bachelor's degree -1.1%
Degree plus work experience -1.0%
Ph.D. +1.6%
First professional degree -0.1%
Master's degree +1.2%
Short-term on-the-job training -0.6%
Long-term on-the-job training -1.0%
Moderate-term on-the-job training -1.6%
Postsecondary certification -0.4%
Work experience in related field 1.3%
Source: Capital Area Council of Governments
Vote for this story!
Your CommentsAustinites love to be heard, and we're giving you a bullhorn. = We just=20 ask that you keep things civil. Leave out the personal attacks. Do = not use=20 profanity, ethnic or racial slurs, or take shots at anyone's = sexual=20 orientation or religion. If you can't be nice, we reserve the = right to=20 remove your material and ban users who violate our visitor's=20 agreement |